DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. (June 22, 2009) – For the third consecutive year, New Hampshire Motor Speedway hosts the first event in the Race to the Chase – the 10 races preceding the “post-season” Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup.
As the points currently stand, four drivers inside the top 12 are within 50 points of being bounced out of the top 12: Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth, Mark Martin and Juan Pablo Montoya. And three drivers outside the top 12 are 50 points from vaulting into the top 12: Kasey Kahne, David Reutimann and Jeff Burton.
In other words, it’s close – very close. The next 10 races and tracks will decide who’s in and who’s out.
The statistics suggest Busch is the safest of those inside the top 12. He has a 48-point cushion to the Chase cutoff, and has the fifth-best average Driver Rating at the next 10 tracks (96.9).
Of those on the outside looking in, Burton seems most likely to make the comeback. At the next 10 tracks, he has a Driver Rating of 86.4 and Average Running Position of 15.2.
The 12 drivers who do make the Chase will have their points reset to 5,000 – with 10 bonus points added to that total for each win prior to the Chase.
Only 100 points remain, meaning those comfortably inside the top 12 are aiming at one target – Victory Lane.
Tony Stewart, with one win this season, seems most likely to pad his bonus points total. He has 21 career wins at the next 10 tracks, as well as a Driver Rating of 106.1 and an Average Running Position of 10.5 – both of which are the best among drivers currently in the top 15.